Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59231e33ff21103ffe17635bd1730a94cb57b43ee94e8bc6c4713a2068c22797
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 5c | 910.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 18c | 641.43$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 77c | 593.09$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.56 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 9c | 312.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 12c | 281.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 278.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 9c | 257.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 10c | 237.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked No | 15c | 234.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 10c | 208.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 204.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 9c | 204$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 187.03$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 176.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 173.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.01 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 167.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 166.35$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked No | 10c | 162.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 29c | 156.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 143.01$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 71c | 132.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 121.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 35c | 120.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 117.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 115$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 38c | 108.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 101.65$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 52c | 95.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked No | 17c | 94.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 23c | 90.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 38c | 81.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 22c | 78.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 72.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 48c | 71.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 78c | 64.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 19c | 63.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 68c | 56.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 42c | 52.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 33c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 36c | 42.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 59c | 33.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 79c | 32.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…0d83backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 48c | 30.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 59c | 30.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked No | 43c | 28.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 46c | 27.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 61c | 26.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 73c | 25.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 24.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 20.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 67c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 67c | 18.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.