Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x592a05744f0efff6963c2cbdd735f1496a51891611c526cc6e13efb0e5c3a6db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 6,042$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…2db1backed No | 74c | 993.98$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.43 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 2c | 516.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 3c | 416.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 369.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed No | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 215.43$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 183.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 174.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 29c | 159.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 153.94$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…580fbacked No | 73c | 142.01$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 125.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 19c | 122.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 17c | 120.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 31c | 119.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 24c | 111.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 110.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 78c | 97.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 75c | 96.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 94.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 92.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 20c | 84.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 83.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 23c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 25c | 72.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed No | 79c | 62.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 24c | 54.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…5289backed Yes | 28c | 51.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 73c | 49.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 71c | 49.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 74c | 49.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…6470backed Yes | 29c | 48.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…a39fbacked Yes | 32c | 44.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 79c | 42.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 28c | 38.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 73c | 32.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 73c | 32.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a20abacked No | 76c | 24.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.