Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d1014a486b5bdcf50775f83c16e6c28fd4eb0fa5d3e688f5f247d8e8ec7428f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 944.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 615.45$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 12c | 523.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 41c | 488.44$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.11 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 14c | 436.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed Yes | 20c | 413.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…ea98backed Yes | 5c | 407.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 75c | 399.57$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…5a85backed Yes | 24c | 373.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 8c | 305.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 291.7$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 265.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 10c | 262.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 7c | 235.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 7c | 232.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 10c | 221.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…2066backed Yes | 29c | 206.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 13c | 194.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 192.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…0b2bbacked Yes | 10c | 182.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 7c | 152.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 142.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 27c | 137.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 10c | 133.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…271bbacked Yes | 23c | 129.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…f584backed Yes | 14c | 121.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 29c | 119.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 79c | 116.75$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 116.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 66c | 113.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 108.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…0a4dbacked Yes | 29c | 103.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 79c | 98.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…f2f2backed Yes | 18c | 97.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 19c | 95.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 18c | 88.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 16c | 68.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked No | 74c | 61.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 79c | 59.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 64c | 59.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 68c | 58.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 56.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 70c | 45.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 69c | 44.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 41.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed Yes | 33c | 40.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 73c | 28.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 72c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 72c | 20.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 68c | 18.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 68c | 16.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 67c | 15.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.