Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa85841b6411968b680e7938a7c03c03d6e40a890876e93f96851998e8862f2a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 0c | 46,215$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.93 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 1,198$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 18c | 884.06$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.04 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 2c | 739.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 555.85$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed No | 8c | 446.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 308.86$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 60c | 288.35$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.65 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 274.87$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.28 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 267.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…df67backed Yes | 75c | 252.3$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed No | 67c | 236.2$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.51 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 56c | 228.82$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 79c | 223.45$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed No | 39c | 217.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 211.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…0a4dbacked Yes | 61c | 210$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 58c | 207.02$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…580fbacked No | 64c | 197.98$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.71 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 41c | 187.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.36 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 187.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 26c | 149.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…7566backed No | 66c | 148.74$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 75c | 148.2$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.84 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 21c | 147.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b02…58ffbacked Yes | 66c | 146.88$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 56c | 146.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 32c | 144.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 144.32$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 49c | 140.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 80c | 133.31$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 61c | 128.45$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 36c | 126.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 125.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 46c | 122.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 68c | 122.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 121.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked No | 62c | 113.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 106.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 18c | 102.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 102.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.67 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…b9a1backed Yes | 26c | 100.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 98.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 80c | 98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 76c | 97.6$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 54c | 89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 43c | 88.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 65c | 88.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed No | 69c | 84.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 83.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 17c | 81.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 73c | 80.32$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 79.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed No | 26c | 74.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 72c | 73.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…5e5fbacked No | 58c | 72.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 39c | 72.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…0190backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 59c | 66.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…5289backed Yes | 35c | 65.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…ac38backed No | 59c | 65.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 47c | 62.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 32c | 59.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed Yes | 40c | 58.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 58.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 22c | 58.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8910…4734backed No | 44c | 56.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 44c | 55.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 35c | 51.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…f0e6backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 31c | 49.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed No | 62c | 49.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 28c | 49.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 24c | 49.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 74c | 48.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…36f6backed No | 36c | 41.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 50c | 40.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…db97backed Yes | 48c | 39.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 39.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 36c | 36.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 69c | 33.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…9e92backed Yes | 43c | 33.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 32.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 62c | 30.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked No | 64c | 29.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 64c | 29.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 60c | 29.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db3…7bddbacked No | 37c | 28.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 74c | 26.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 63c | 26.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.