Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc60c34764a19fc7fc311480a85e07356940aaeac1ac7051a61a0808f20aa2cc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 1,681$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.66 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 1,001$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 13c | 997.12$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 75c | 717$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.88 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 612.71$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 74c | 508.69$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed No | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 11c | 495.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 16c | 485.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 18c | 436.26$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 427.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 346.26$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…5289backed Yes | 14c | 340.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 72c | 340.38$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 10c | 310.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 17c | 306.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 24c | 304.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 299.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…5e5fbacked Yes | 7c | 292.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 22c | 289.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 11c | 287.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 279.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…13babacked Yes | 21c | 272.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 16c | 269.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 267.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 263.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 70c | 259.77$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 21c | 258.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 257.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 222.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…e1a8backed Yes | 23c | 217.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed No | 73c | 215.43$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…0a4dbacked Yes | 36c | 210$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 12c | 204.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 28c | 203.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 201.94$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 51c | 196.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 7c | 185.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 14c | 181.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 179.09$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 22c | 176.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…d3aabacked Yes | 15c | 175.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 20c | 169.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 65c | 167.22$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 29c | 165.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d67…8f33backed No | 74c | 160.92$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked Yes | 9c | 141.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 15c | 139.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 27c | 133$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 19c | 124.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed Yes | 15c | 123.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed Yes | 15c | 119.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 116.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 34c | 108.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 25c | 100.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 23c | 98.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 73c | 98.31$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9471…eb8abacked Yes | 12c | 91.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 78c | 90.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 23c | 89.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed No | 64c | 88.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 80.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…271bbacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 30c | 68.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 18c | 63.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 73c | 62.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 23c | 59.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…9e92backed Yes | 53c | 53.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 52.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…6470backed Yes | 30c | 49.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 73c | 49.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 76c | 48.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 29c | 47.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Yes | 32c | 46.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 29c | 46.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 29c | 46.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 26c | 46.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf3…f2fcbacked No | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 30c | 45.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 31c | 43.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 42.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 30c | 39.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…ac38backed No | 50c | 37.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61b0…f7f2backed Yes | 30c | 36.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e55…f83bbacked No | 78c | 33.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 75c | 33.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 31c | 32.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 73c | 30.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.