TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
South America Rejectsof Team Yandex, South America Rejects
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$215,030
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$245,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,030 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x913c…39b3backed South America Rejects30c13,417$4,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,360.8871454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed South America Rejects44c8,256$3,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,653.1851049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed South America Rejects27c8,202$2,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,987.2222848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Yandex62c6,540$4,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,085.5547046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Team Yandex73c6,000$4,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,38024153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Yandex58c5,394$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,119.661,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Yandex70c4,661$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,250.3151751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed South America Rejects32c4,302$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,925.1143344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Yandex48c4,283$2,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035.211,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked South America Rejects33c4,212$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,826.1567043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked South America Rejects46c4,000$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,16036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Yandex8c4,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32040014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked South America Rejects28c3,695$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.5880256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Yandex74c3,554$2,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,628.8850749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f9…0a00backed South America Rejects27c3,541$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,585.289158.2%53 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed Team Yandex71c3,426$2,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,430.2813068.5%89 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Yandex8c3,176$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.981,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed South America Rejects62c3,003$1,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.2438855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Yandex65c2,993$1,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,937.671,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Yandex64c2,799$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.136759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed South America Rejects31c2,648$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,82724636.6%90 W · 156 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed South America Rejects23c2,485$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.3154445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Team Yandex72c2,421$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.0115544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9031…554bbacked Team Yandex64c2,416$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.6910262.7%64 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked South America Rejects28c2,272$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.131,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Team Yandex73c2,272$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.8418356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked South America Rejects25c2,168$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.156542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf8…2f4abacked South America Rejects20c2,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.995034%17 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc83f…23e4backed South America Rejects32c1,992$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.611855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed South America Rejects36c1,878$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.0333041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed South America Rejects24c1,827$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.8955147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Team Yandex73c1,781$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.1325248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Yandex47c1,727$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.7799844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Team Yandex54c1,708$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.3225147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked South America Rejects27c1,707$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.5337945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed South America Rejects42c1,690$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97428549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked South America Rejects29c1,645$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.8689741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team Yandex73c1,509$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.5827153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Yandex62c1,500$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93038049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Team Yandex12c1,487$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.4836851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Yandex72c1,379$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.7856955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Team Yandex63c1,098$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.7448843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3351…4e2dbacked South America Rejects59c1,093$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.612055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8010…c05fbacked South America Rejects41c1,083$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.3616932.5%55 W · 114 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Yandex73c1,000$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked South America Rejects29c999.99$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.9960646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex72c983.2$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.92,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd56b…342dbacked Team Yandex72c933.8$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.993850%19 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Team Yandex80c921.09$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.8711960.5%72 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked South America Rejects36c919.32$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.332,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed South America Rejects32c899.25$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.4996245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x688e…148dbacked Team Yandex75c788$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5913154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed Team Yandex79c752.66$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.337862.8%49 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Yandex72c749.99$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9945061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Yandex74c718$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.7960552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Team Yandex50c705.57$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.1427143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Yandex63c695.51$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.5356548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa00…f736backed Team Yandex76c651.8$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.682070%14 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked South America Rejects31c648.76$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.6446240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Team Yandex70c633.98$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.7920145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5808…d235backed South America Rejects46c631.17$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.8911744.4%52 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1193…d9c4backed South America Rejects32c610.12$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.847859%46 W · 32 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x41a6…fbadbacked South America Rejects29c607.12$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.286949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6bf…05b6backed Team Yandex27c580.26$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.542227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Team Yandex73c577.95$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.1633867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62d6…90dfbacked Team Yandex67c556.11$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.522360.9%14 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked South America Rejects59c549.18$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.0677458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Team Yandex57c541.51$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.5692056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Yandex70c539.62$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.121,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked South America Rejects32c538.85$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.713157.3%75 W · 56 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed South America Rejects20c529.38$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.781,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Team Yandex39c500.2$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.047429.7%22 W · 52 L-7.9wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed South America Rejects50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25051140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1994…d63cbacked Team Yandex71c500$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3554261.9%26 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xebf8…7d2bbacked South America Rejects42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29010541%43 W · 62 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa7b3…f473backed Team Yandex73c500$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3651560%9 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed South America Rejects25c500$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37533541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Team Yandex50c485$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.510961.5%67 W · 42 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d56…52b1backed Team Yandex38c476.92$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.471127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-55.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Yandex40c474.63$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.6789938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed South America Rejects39c471.86$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.532,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Team Yandex27c456.11$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5369033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Team Yandex28c451.75$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2817330.1%52 W · 121 L-16.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team Yandex12c448.39$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.736132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed South America Rejects44c439.27$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.9912557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed South America Rejects52c418.64$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.6728044.3%124 W · 156 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Yandex72c410.26$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.9956852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…d6d8backed South America Rejects30c407.58$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.9720858.7%122 W · 86 L+22.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x5a53…1b12backed South America Rejects48c406.77$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.525234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6dc4…bb3fbacked Team Yandex54c400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Team Yandex75c392.9$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.4933644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked South America Rejects26c382.24$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.8620043.5%87 W · 113 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed South America Rejects24c377$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.5211131.5%35 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Team Yandex70c361.68$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.1847650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked Team Yandex70c355.3$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.6623555.7%131 W · 104 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Yandex60c349.4$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.6461057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf52e…54fcbacked South America Rejects69c340.56$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.572540%10 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed Team Yandex38c338.89$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4913228.8%38 W · 94 L-9.7wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bb4…a903backed Team Yandex75c333.86$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.43844.7%17 W · 21 L-7.1wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-32.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed South America Rejects32c323.34$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.8772035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.