Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-08-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59a3f1a105e081201f29bf1741ba3b25f6da001de238048601cc0aceae02b822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 18c | 2,850$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.47 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…a37fbacked No | 14c | 2,687$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,299.31 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 36c | 2,469$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.52 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 20c | 2,423$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,932.43 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 16c | 1,789$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.48 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 80c | 1,136$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -81%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 17c | 1,106$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.28 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed No | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 11c | 901.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.4 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked No | 52c | 783.18$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.37 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 76c | 600$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 16c | 596.65$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.39 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 76c | 572.79$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.34 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 79c | 510$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.9 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Yes | 66c | 500.41$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.26 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 17c | 438.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.54 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 22c | 377.9$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed No | 22c | 375$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.45 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 39c | 355.59$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.13 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…91fdbacked No | 21c | 344.54$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.18 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaae5…7974backed No | 29c | 306.21$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.41 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 14c | 266.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.95 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…e868backed No | 21c | 210$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.9 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +88%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 146 | 30.1%44 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 79c | 195.69$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.92 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 28c | 178$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.67 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 24c | 161.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.14 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 78c | 160$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 78c | 160$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 16c | 154.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.47 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 26c | 153$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.61 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked No | 41c | 153$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.84 | 76 | 77.6%59 W · 17 L | +13.5wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Yes | 72c | 146.66$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 77c | 144.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.49 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed Yes | 71c | 139.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…99e6backed No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked No | 21c | 131.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.75 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…8b89backed No | 35c | 125$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked No | 15c | 120.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.45 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 21c | 120$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked No | 21c | 115$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.85 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 80c | 112.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…eeabbacked Yes | 80c | 110.35$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…dd2bbacked Yes | 80c | 102.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c0…c6f9backed Yes | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.96 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 61c | 89.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 23c | 84.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 42c | 77.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 170 | 59.4%101 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 19c | 76.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 69c | 64.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 32c | 61.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6861…b317backed Yes | 74c | 56.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked No | 62c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed Yes | 73c | 46.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Yes | 46c | 43.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…e2eabacked No | 38c | 42.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 66c | 39.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 72c | 39.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…8974backed Yes | 71c | 34.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -81%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…7b4cbacked Yes | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…f409backed No | 55c | 21.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 80c | 20.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…e79cbacked Yes | 75c | 20.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed Yes | 65c | 19.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b51…8bcebacked Yes | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-08-13?this page
- Will Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Shelbourne FC win on 2026-08-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.