TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Zagreb: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Josip Simundza

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Josip Simundzaof Alvaro Guillen Meza, Josip Simundza
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$117,204
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$131,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,204 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x46ee…ae61backed Alvaro Guillen Meza49c48,722$23,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,671.113351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Josip Simundza49c13,427$6,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,799.218,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb7…a0f1backed Josip Simundza54c11,086$5,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,096.3712146.3%56 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Josip Simundza55c10,817$5,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,867.5762140.7%253 W · 368 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Josip Simundza51c5,246$2,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,570.562,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Josip Simundza46c5,227$2,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,801.7711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce0…6599backed Alvaro Guillen Meza2c4,217$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.17260%0 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Josip Simundza48c4,039$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,107.384,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8963…c780backed Alvaro Guillen Meza3c4,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Alvaro Guillen Meza56c3,384$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.37,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Josip Simundza48c3,251$1,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.748,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Josip Simundza27c1,814$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.986,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Josip Simundza35c1,776$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.935,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed Alvaro Guillen Meza5c1,600$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734114.6%6 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcff0…fa1abacked Alvaro Guillen Meza9c1,400$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1261752.9%9 W · 8 L+7.1wins+0.42per pick11cpaid+342.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x3f70…ce77backed Alvaro Guillen Meza9c1,400$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1261656.3%9 W · 7 L+7.2wins+0.45per pick11cpaid+334.9%equal weight69+0.18 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza47c1,231$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.497,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0580…f78bbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza3c1,192$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5192…df62backed Alvaro Guillen Meza4c1,171$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8412352.8%65 W · 58 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Josip Simundza50c1,062$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.454,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Alvaro Guillen Meza5c900$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457732.5%25 W · 52 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked Alvaro Guillen Meza5c900$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457828.2%22 W · 56 L+11.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+31.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed Alvaro Guillen Meza20c894$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.6817617%30 W · 146 L-15.9wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-45.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f5e…75a4backed Alvaro Guillen Meza2c877$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Alvaro Guillen Meza8c774$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.164124.4%10 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza48c755.6$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.382,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa838…bccebacked Alvaro Guillen Meza70c714.28$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006264.5%40 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Alvaro Guillen Meza65c710.65$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.356,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Alvaro Guillen Meza55c661.23$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.868,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38ff…8f77backed Alvaro Guillen Meza67c653.01$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.65862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed Alvaro Guillen Meza18c542$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.495927.1%16 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2be0…6deebacked Alvaro Guillen Meza10c527.8$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.524431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x845a…37acbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451241.7%5 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.31per pick11cpaid+184.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4519941.7%83 W · 116 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Josip Simundza55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2254,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9f6…55aabacked Alvaro Guillen Meza12c500$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594930.6%15 W · 34 L+10.2wins+0.21per pick10cpaid+156.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Alvaro Guillen Meza20c447$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3416718.6%31 W · 136 L-23.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-54.7%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Josip Simundza56c430.85$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.7926535.5%94 W · 171 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94ba…001dbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza9c400$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364932.7%16 W · 33 L+10.8wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+131.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xd7e4…15eebacked Alvaro Guillen Meza8c325$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.254617.4%8 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238d…eb74backed Alvaro Guillen Meza16c321$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.894332.6%14 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x276b…c0c8backed Alvaro Guillen Meza16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483542.9%15 W · 20 L+10.7wins+0.31per pick12cpaid+212%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Josip Simundza12c254.49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.952,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Alvaro Guillen Meza21c250$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5345235.8%162 W · 290 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Alvaro Guillen Meza21c250$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5369438%264 W · 430 L+21.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ad…7889backed Alvaro Guillen Meza68c235.6$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9756070.7%396 W · 164 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c8f…da09backed Josip Simundza46c216.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.8621551.6%111 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Alvaro Guillen Meza60c213.09$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.894,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8634…1b5bbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza43c205.16$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.381127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-51.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Alvaro Guillen Meza23c200$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4529039.3%114 W · 176 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Alvaro Guillen Meza23c200$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4539941.9%167 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb75…ba17backed Alvaro Guillen Meza36c199.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Josip Simundza55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8211956.3%67 W · 52 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa74c…1f49backed Alvaro Guillen Meza75c166.66$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12514674%108 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick75cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Josip Simundza52c147.68$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.861,22652%637 W · 589 L+44.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Josip Simundza46c141.24$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.691,17451.9%609 W · 565 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Josip Simundza47c136.97$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.562,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Alvaro Guillen Meza46c124$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.312,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7173…7a4cbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza56c117.32$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.117240.3%29 W · 43 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Alvaro Guillen Meza65c117.3$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.259,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Josip Simundza54c115.15$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.122,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Josip Simundza45c109.02$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.796,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Josip Simundza29c92.71$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.92,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4538…7d5cbacked Josip Simundza56c86.11$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1117738.4%68 W · 109 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Alvaro Guillen Meza21c83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5730040%120 W · 180 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65e5…0cadbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza21c83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.571030%3 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+172.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Josip Simundza54c82.22$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8995846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Josip Simundza46c81$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7443067%288 W · 142 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31dd…7159backed Josip Simundza14c72$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9290340.2%363 W · 540 L+4.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked Josip Simundza47c69.44$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7832853%174 W · 154 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Josip Simundza44c68.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.181,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c67…a479backed Alvaro Guillen Meza38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.825751.8%133 W · 124 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Alvaro Guillen Meza57c59.65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341,41745.2%640 W · 777 L+41.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Alvaro Guillen Meza79c55$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.451,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86d0…904ebacked Alvaro Guillen Meza65c54.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9223634.7%82 W · 154 L-37.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-45.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x8711…d2d0backed Josip Simundza65c53.85$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8543358.4%253 W · 180 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa497…7891backed Josip Simundza47c52.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1716258.6%95 W · 67 L+11.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked Josip Simundza44c39.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.242,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe031…5c08backed Alvaro Guillen Meza56c38.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8773549.8%366 W · 369 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Alvaro Guillen Meza57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Josip Simundza39c31.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0785624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Josip Simundza32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.257341.1%30 W · 43 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Josip Simundza49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.374955.1%413 W · 336 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Josip Simundza52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.432,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Alvaro Guillen Meza59c29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1722550.2%113 W · 112 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Josip Simundza46c27.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.923,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x9132…6607backed Josip Simundza44c27.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2716242%68 W · 94 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc444…5eeabacked Alvaro Guillen Meza77c25.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9923073.9%170 W · 60 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick78cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54bf…e2d0backed Alvaro Guillen Meza57c25.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.497162%44 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa820…2dcebacked Alvaro Guillen Meza80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208043.8%35 W · 45 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32b5…b692backed Josip Simundza50c23.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.519639.6%38 W · 58 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Alvaro Guillen Meza57c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4830339.9%121 W · 182 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88c7…febcbacked Josip Simundza57c21.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.37474.3%55 W · 19 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Josip Simundza51c20.41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1031563.5%200 W · 115 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Josip Simundza55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935187.7%308 W · 43 L+66.4wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+29.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza62c17.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5151…fba8backed Josip Simundza65c17.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2238074.5%283 W · 97 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.