Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a02aa81f4f03c655b76c717c4934367b5e9e8305d2a104260ded042abf7b099
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 950.38$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.87 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 73c | 489.19$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.72 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 38c | 402.2$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.09 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 280.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 53c | 180.6$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.81 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 29c | 179.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 177.14$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 40c | 175.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 174.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 43c | 156.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 40c | 153.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 25c | 148$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 143.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 134.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 133$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 30c | 125$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 34c | 122.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 119.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 37c | 99.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 47c | 88.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 83.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dce…1ae5backed No | 60c | 83.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 60cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 45c | 82.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 76c | 77.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 24c | 62.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 33c | 60.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 39c | 59.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 56.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 46c | 55.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked No | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…a3fabacked No | 52c | 54.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 53.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 51.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 39c | 51.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c2…d7a3backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 62c | 42.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7c…968fbacked Yes | 47c | 42.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 76c | 42.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 40.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 77c | 40.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…8652backed No | 62c | 40.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 39.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3e…b7aabacked Yes | 48c | 37.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebb…5ab2backed Yes | 50c | 34.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…f74ebacked Yes | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 69c | 33.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 33.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 32.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 46c | 31.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bf…0efbbacked Yes | 58c | 31.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 50c | 27.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…1c72backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 48c | 23.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 66c | 20.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 55c | 20.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…1096backed No | 51c | 19.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed Yes | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.