Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x420fb1c2ba80198bb18f2592e97173dcdf59882bfeec3938258765eb0af364a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,737$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 25c | 484.47$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.54 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 332.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 29c | 245$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 74c | 218.12$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 174.6$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 164.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95c2…d7a3backed No | 76c | 146.12$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 141.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 31c | 140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 80c | 135$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 71c | 127$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 78c | 126.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 120.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 118$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 17c | 103.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 101$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 87.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 23c | 86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 19c | 78.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 74c | 77.11$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 27c | 76.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 65.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 20c | 61.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 72c | 44.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 38.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…5f75backed No | 71c | 37.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…bcbabacked Yes | 31c | 37.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…a5abbacked Yes | 31c | 34.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…88d2backed No | 73c | 34.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…03e8backed No | 71c | 33.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed No | 61c | 32.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 27.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 21.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 21.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 77c | 21.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 78c | 21.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 15.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…1096backed No | 74c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.