Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a185538e0361cfc2a4dc84ab90153062109d68738d70ebec9877681691030cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 34c | 951.18$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.1 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 32c | 436.68$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.72 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 384.95$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 67c | 321.22$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 263.24$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 225.52$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 184.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 182.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 37c | 159.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 154.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 66c | 153.91$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 152.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 146.68$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 140.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 66c | 138.32$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 80c | 123.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 117.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 117.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 29c | 111$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 67c | 102.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 36c | 94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 90.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 86.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 44c | 86.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 76.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked No | 32c | 70.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 45c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 57.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 60c | 52.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 66c | 52.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 46c | 50.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 53c | 39.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 35c | 38.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 37.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 33.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 30.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…5904backed No | 65c | 28.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed No | 65c | 27.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 27.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 57c | 26.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 57c | 20.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 80c | 15.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 67c | 14.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 80c | 13.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.