Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a1b10a52e5b5edf4a041febd89770016e34bf266a5a3b136879e623db392a72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 64c | 699.7$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.86 | 3,066 | 44.6%1,366 W · 1,700 L | -97.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…845cbacked Over | 35c | 251.43$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.43 | 159 | 37.1%59 W · 100 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 65c | 250$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 2,572 | 47.2%1,215 W · 1,357 L | -36.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 35c | 250$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.3 | 474 | 52.1%247 W · 227 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…6b83backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 292 | 43.5%127 W · 165 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 178.62$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 1,489 | 38.4%572 W · 917 L | -44.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 40c | 177.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.49 | 1,042 | 54.8%571 W · 471 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Over | 36c | 175$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 252 | 34.9%88 W · 164 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…2830backed Over | 52c | 149.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c8…2313backed Over | 38c | 129.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 44c | 126.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 3,206 | 34%1,089 W · 2,117 L | -150.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Over | 45c | 124.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 745 | 41.1%306 W · 439 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…11c0backed Over | 47c | 115$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…3373backed Under | 50c | 97.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 62c | 85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 1,398 | 49.4%691 W · 707 L | -20.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 54c | 79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 352 | 50.3%177 W · 175 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7986…baa5backed Under | 61c | 69.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 230 | 47.8%110 W · 120 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Under | 47c | 58.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 531 | 45.4%241 W · 290 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8038…9547backed Over | 53c | 55.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 41c | 44.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 1,213 | 39.6%480 W · 733 L | -44.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Under | 64c | 44.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 1,383 | 47.4%655 W · 728 L | -35.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…2ae5backed Over | 44c | 40.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 591 | 34.2%202 W · 389 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…303cbacked Under | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5)HANJIN BRION won
- Game Handicap: BFX (-2.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+2.5)HANJIN BRION won
- Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)BNK FEARX won
- Game Handicap: BRO (-2.5) vs BNK FEARX (+2.5)BNK FEARX won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Play-InBNK FEARX won
- LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 WinnerBNK FEARX won
- LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 WinnerHANJIN BRION won
- LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 WinnerHANJIN BRION won
- LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 4 WinnerBNK FEARX won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.