TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: CR Flamengo O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,594
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,546

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,594 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Over62c3,097$1,905 inWon+$1,192.21,43937.5%540 W · 899 L+4.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Over64c2,329$1,490 inWon+$838.3111565.2%75 W · 40 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under38c1,815$686 inLost-$685.613,74938.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L-33.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under37c1,620$598 inLost-$598.332,33551.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L+2.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under38c526$200 inLost-$199.881,35549.7%674 W · 681 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under38c526$200 inLost-$199.881,65150.6%836 W · 815 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Under38c459.44$175 inLost-$174.593941%16 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under37c221.17$82 inLost-$81.836243.5%27 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-18.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under35c153.85$54 inLost-$53.851,44345.9%662 W · 781 L-22.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf10a…d6c2backed Over65c153.85$100 inWon+$53.855248.1%25 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under39c139.98$55 inLost-$54.5914643.2%63 W · 83 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under37c100$37 inLost-$3741654.3%226 W · 190 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under36c98$35 inLost-$35.282,61154.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under38c80$30 inLost-$30.442462.3%264 W · 160 L+24.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Under41c32.78$13 inLost-$13.4433152.6%174 W · 157 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1010…d793backed Under39c30$12 inLost-$11.725345.1%114 W · 139 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over53c29$15 inWon+$13.631,53745.2%695 W · 842 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.