TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,366
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,366 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Over77c15,172$11,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,467.641,43937.5%540 W · 899 L+4.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under23c4,343$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.891,44345.9%662 W · 781 L-22.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under25c3,994$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.878,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d4…3593backed Under23c3,539$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.9929037.9%110 W · 180 L+1.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under23c2,173$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.792,33551.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L+2.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under22c1,994$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.81,28253.7%689 W · 593 L+5.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Under1c1,948$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.48927.6%7 W · 85 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-51.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0145…35d0backed Over78c1,923$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.083076.7%23 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under23c1,800$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4131,94451.3%998 W · 946 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under23c1,170$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.13,74938.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L-33.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Under23c857.86$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5519447.9%93 W · 101 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under23c426.22$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0353836.8%198 W · 340 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Under22c399.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8820846.6%97 W · 111 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over70c221.31$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.562,28134.3%782 W · 1,499 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over77c217.21$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.962878.6%22 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under25c191.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2695155.8%531 W · 420 L+31.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under23c139.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.214643.2%63 W · 83 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf67…e8f2backed Over76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Over76c131.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.57785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick77cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb109…d40fbacked Over77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under23c128$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4417951.4%92 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over78c127$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9449136.3%178 W · 313 L-2.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked Over74c118.03$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3424665.9%162 W · 84 L+26.2wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+27.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Under23c113$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9972058.8%423 W · 297 L+29.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd68e…8048backed Over78c88.32$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.434477.3%34 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa069…262ebacked Under23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under23c86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.782,61154.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under23c86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.784542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over76c73.93$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7431136.7%114 W · 197 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Under24c71.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1333152.6%174 W · 157 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16f…a33fbacked Over80c49.81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.113959%23 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under22c46.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.151,23153.9%663 W · 568 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Under24c42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.088855.7%49 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd325…8c5fbacked Under25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.17241.7%30 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2126…aeebbacked Over74c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.54858.3%28 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d3b…eedbbacked Over79c17.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.72540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c78…e29bbacked Over71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.352875%21 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.