South American Leagues · resolved market

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc699eeab865e3f73390291edfead7dd2e913f86b2060eb4c26c9eb767da5b6c

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $77,442
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $67,714

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,442 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8397…a04dbacked Under	7c	20,617$1,373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,372.71	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	46c	5,495$2,510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,510.07	8,107	48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L	+26.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x482a…c85dbacked Under	2c	5,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	89	28.1%25 W · 64 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over	54c	3,735$2,028 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,707.43	2,281	34.3%782 W · 1,499 L	-30.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2220…1a0fbacked Over	61c	3,433$2,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,332.82	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e97…8ffabacked Under	2c	2,772$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.61	88	33%29 W · 59 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad31…c93abacked Under	1c	2,600$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0f…0e48backed Under	3c	2,453$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.92	124	34.7%43 W · 81 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec57…0fa7backed Under	2c	2,320$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.1	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	+8.2wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	-4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb5a…8445backed Under	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	77	23.4%18 W · 59 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67bf…f983backed Under	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	110	25.5%28 W · 82 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Under	1c	1,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	31.7%20 W · 43 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x122b…ac59backed Under	5c	1,345$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.23	87	43.7%38 W · 49 L	+8.9wins	+0.10per pick	33cpaid	+112%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad46…e6a6backed Under	4c	1,282$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.45	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5fcfbacked Under	3c	1,273$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.69	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafd0…ebd0backed Under	1c	1,253$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.59	81	39.5%32 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48fb…ced4backed Under	5c	1,080$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46cd…6b95backed Under	1c	1,017$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	123	40.7%50 W · 73 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	48c	845.23$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.99	5,757	45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L	+94.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd0e…cdf0backed Under	10c	800$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Under	2c	600$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	+100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd684…7e92backed Under	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd9…51d0backed Over	23c	434.78$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$334.78	138	33.3%46 W · 92 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61d4…3593backed Under	70c	430.62$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.98	290	37.9%110 W · 180 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76bc…fccabacked Under	9c	416.66$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	127	38.6%49 W · 78 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+96.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under	4c	372.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	184	26.1%48 W · 136 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Over	31c	322.58$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$222.68	79	25.3%20 W · 59 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…1ef5backed Under	4c	309.51$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.19	101	28.7%29 W · 72 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	68c	301.52$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.78	2,170	43.7%948 W · 1,222 L	-53.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x168c…f24bbacked Under	66c	286.8$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.29	54	57.4%31 W · 23 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Over	30c	285.7$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.99	197	42.1%83 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a0b…2500backed Under	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	156	25.6%40 W · 116 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	53c	239.68$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.13	3,749	38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L	-33.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	62c	211.25$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.57	538	36.8%198 W · 340 L	-24.0wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1345…53cdbacked Under	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under	46c	194.23$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.13	951	55.8%531 W · 420 L	+31.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Under	69c	171.74$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.5	208	46.6%97 W · 111 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x882c…5d07backed Under	36c	165$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.7	352	40.3%142 W · 210 L	-28.0wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Over	78c	153.6$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.79	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Over	31c	138.22$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.37	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Over	31c	138.22$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.37	92	44.6%41 W · 51 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Under	69c	131.52$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.75	194	47.9%93 W · 101 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a1…ab16backed Over	63c	118.51$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.76	48	72.9%35 W · 13 L	+5.0wins	+0.10per pick	63cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9455…7defbacked Under	43c	116.28$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf916…2763backed Over	51c	114.77$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.78	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over	31c	110$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.9	491	36.3%178 W · 313 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ce6…1e03backed Over	77c	100$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over	70c	75$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.31	506	43.9%222 W · 284 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Under	41c	72.92$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.79	191	64.4%123 W · 68 L	+10.4wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d9c…601abacked Over	31c	61.74$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.6	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under	35c	61$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.54	217	52.1%113 W · 104 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa146…6163backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2adb…9e4bbacked Over	37c	29.73$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.73	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2126…aeebbacked Over	59c	27.04$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.97	48	58.3%28 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Over	73c	26.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	519	45.7%237 W · 282 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over	76c	25$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.13	485	47.6%231 W · 254 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafcf…72f6backed Under	44c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	57	59.6%34 W · 23 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	68cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde6e…eeeabacked Under	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over	53c	20.78$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.67	350	46.3%162 W · 188 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf809…2ef1backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Over	62c	19.93$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.57	191	50.3%96 W · 95 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…c3d9backed Under	56c	18.38$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	107	66.4%71 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5this page
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 0.5Under won
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 1.5Under won
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 2.5Under won
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: CR Flamengo O/U 1.5Over won
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: CR Flamengo O/U 2.5Over won
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 0.5Over won
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5Over won
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5Over won
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 4.5Under won
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)CR Flamengo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event