South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d939b0f20c88ce7bb401a426858b229cec4a2f750520dfd6a4846688f5656cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Over | 50c | 5,039$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,538.63 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 1c | 3,589$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 92 | 7.6%7 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 2,976$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.39 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Under | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…8445backed Under | 8c | 2,497$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.52 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 47c | 2,177$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.95 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0145…35d0backed Over | 80c | 1,875$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 52c | 1,839$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.62 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 1,397$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.79 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 1,286$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.25 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…0fa7backed Under | 5c | 1,058$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 47c | 1,019$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.76 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…f51abacked Under | 2c | 1,012$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 916.81$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.87 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 48c | 877.51$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.08 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Under | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b0…5e5ebacked Under | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…4c4ebacked Under | 3c | 564.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +370.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked Over | 80c | 466$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 46 | 80.4%37 W · 9 L | +14.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 443.74$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.32 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 7c | 388$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 47c | 258.9$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.22 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…2909backed Over | 53c | 222.61$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 49c | 203.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.53 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…492abacked Under | 7c | 193.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 49c | 179.59$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb109…d40fbacked Over | 54c | 148.24$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 16c | 147.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Over | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 48c | 139.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b31…3e10backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 37c | 100.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…7078backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 62c | 95.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 51c | 64.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 51c | 47.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ce…15febacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff0…0a65backed Over | 53c | 33.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 54cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -6.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Under | 49c | 30.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149d…0ecfbacked Over | 52c | 29.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 54c | 29.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e6…0936backed Over | 52c | 20.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 0.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 1.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 2.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: CR Flamengo O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: CR Flamengo O/U 2.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 0.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.