South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x516191b380036770d89f5b441965f73c76d116914fe5b785963526343a53a1d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CR Flamengoof CR Flamengo, Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3ed…9f79backed CR Flamengo | 46c | 10,870$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,869.57 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 56c | 2,500$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.77 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed CR Flamengo | 72c | 2,370$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.28 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…344fbacked CR Flamengo | 46c | 2,310$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 55c | 2,308$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.64 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 54c | 2,138$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.67 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443b…e8bbbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.99 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed CR Flamengo | 40c | 1,305$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.91 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 54c | 1,300$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 26c | 1,021$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.08 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1,670 | 51.8%865 W · 805 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 54c | 993.47$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.32 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 54c | 925$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked CR Flamengo | 43c | 793$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.01 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 54c | 773.52$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.7 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 60c | 350$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d8…3b2bbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…4eb6backed CR Flamengo | 44c | 284$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…f089backed CR Flamengo | 43c | 261.74$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.19 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed CR Flamengo | 59c | 220.34$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed CR Flamengo | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed CR Flamengo | 45c | 210.56$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.81 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed CR Flamengo | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ba…dc2bbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed CR Flamengo | 62c | 173.09$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 59c | 139.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.59 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c86…abc9backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 60c | 133.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 54c | 119.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 406 | 51%207 W · 199 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 60c | 111.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed CR Flamengo | 43c | 110.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 1,442 | 37.6%542 W · 900 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…4d43backed CR Flamengo | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…2763backed CR Flamengo | 61c | 87.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 58c | 75.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 54c | 73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 41c | 69.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819a…4b03backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd60…c454backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…374bbacked CR Flamengo | 42c | 26.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 57c | 25.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…fc83backed CR Flamengo | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 0.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 1.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 2.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: CR Flamengo O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: CR Flamengo O/U 2.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 0.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.