Tennis · resolved market
Lincoln: Hayato Matsuoka vs Hiroki Moriya
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a60603b592abc5ae072d4ca3cd8dc740655e00161a39cb1b30620b33d11406e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hayato Matsuokaof Hayato Matsuoka, Hiroki Moriya
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Hiroki Moriya | 4c | 8,338$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.14 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Hiroki Moriya | 15c | 3,635$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.44 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac7…78ebbacked Hiroki Moriya | 43c | 3,492$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 74c | 3,034$2,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.7 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Hiroki Moriya | 4c | 2,103$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 530 | 43%228 W · 302 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Hayato Matsuoka | 66c | 1,634$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.01 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Hiroki Moriya | 3c | 1,080$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 213 | 17.4%37 W · 176 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Hiroki Moriya | 5c | 952.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Hiroki Moriya | 24c | 896$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.04 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Hayato Matsuoka | 78c | 628$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.22 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hiroki Moriya | 10c | 438.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Hiroki Moriya | 5c | 380$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Hayato Matsuoka | 72c | 253.19$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…b4a5backed Hayato Matsuoka | 76c | 240.4$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 549 | 55.2%303 W · 246 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Hiroki Moriya | 29c | 239.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Hayato Matsuoka | 61c | 229.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Hiroki Moriya | 39c | 229.51$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Hiroki Moriya | 44c | 226.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Hiroki Moriya | 7c | 223.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 503 | 40%201 W · 302 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 77c | 214$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Hayato Matsuoka | 57c | 193.03$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Hiroki Moriya | 20c | 132.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 921 | 45.2%416 W · 505 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 80c | 124.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 179 | 72.6%130 W · 49 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Hiroki Moriya | 26c | 120.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…f740backed Hayato Matsuoka | 67c | 120.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | -16.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Hiroki Moriya | 32c | 114.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…7831backed Hiroki Moriya | 15c | 111.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 789 | 57.8%456 W · 333 L | +56.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2890…49ebbacked Hiroki Moriya | 35c | 111.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…cab1backed Hiroki Moriya | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Hiroki Moriya | 15c | 86.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Hiroki Moriya | 40c | 73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…9c0cbacked Hiroki Moriya | 24c | 63.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Hayato Matsuoka | 60c | 55.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Hayato Matsuoka | 57c | 51.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 481 | 52%250 W · 231 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Hayato Matsuoka | 71c | 48.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…f71ebacked Hiroki Moriya | 44c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 390 | 39.5%154 W · 236 L | -46.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Hiroki Moriya | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Hayato Matsuoka | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…4754backed Hiroki Moriya | 40c | 32.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 434 | 44.9%195 W · 239 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Hayato Matsuoka | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 978 | 52%509 W · 469 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…0532backed Hayato Matsuoka | 60c | 31.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 205 | 70.7%145 W · 60 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56d…3658backed Hiroki Moriya | 45c | 29.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Hayato Matsuoka | 73c | 23.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Hayato Matsuoka | 61c | 22.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e0…b68abacked Hayato Matsuoka | 64c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.