NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a80765eee19195d7b18541691e53794c922a2d74a3e4450627aa5a2eda909d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Krakenof Ducks, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Ducks | 41c | 6,528$2,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,676.48 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kraken | 59c | 4,648$2,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,905.85 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ducks | 41c | 3,969$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.73 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Kraken | 59c | 3,000$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Ducks | 41c | 2,439$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Kraken | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.99 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kraken | 58c | 1,490$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.49 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kraken | 60c | 808.49$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.47 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Kraken | 59c | 600$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Ducks | 40c | 247.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Kraken | 59c | 240$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked Ducks | 42c | 238.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Ducks | 40c | 232.78$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Ducks | 41c | 224.39$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Kraken | 60c | 218.83$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kraken | 57c | 194$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Ducks | 41c | 182.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Ducks | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ff…94f5backed Ducks | 42c | 126.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Ducks | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Kraken | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Kraken | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Kraken | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Kraken | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Kraken | 59c | 99.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 130 | 60%78 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Kraken | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Ducks | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Kraken | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Ducks | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Kraken | 59c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Kraken | 59c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Ducks | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Ducks | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Kraken | 59c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Kraken | 59c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Kraken | 59c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…0b37backed Ducks | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Kraken | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Kraken | 60c | 49.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Kraken | 58c | 49.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Kraken | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Kraken | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Kraken | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Kraken | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Kraken | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Kraken | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Kraken | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Kraken | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Kraken | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Kraken | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 189 | 46%87 W · 102 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Kraken | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Kraken | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…1f62backed Kraken | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 250 | 50.4%126 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Kraken | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Ducks | 39c | 26.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…bbf7backed Ducks | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Kraken | 59c | 20.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Kraken | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3708…96a0backed Kraken | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 231 | 44.6%103 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Kraken | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Kraken | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Kraken vs. DucksKraken won
- Kraken vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.