Commodities · resolved market
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a89abe3a3062de950ed7ec38fcc30a1bb18129d61add9327b792cd8d4052a11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 67c | 944.72$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.09 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Down | 53c | 432.96$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.81 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 32c | 426.82$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.85 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 36c | 363.47$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.84 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 58c | 350$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Up | 30c | 299.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Up | 44c | 216.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Down | 39c | 190.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…d606backed Up | 39c | 168.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Up | 56c | 161.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -10.8wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c974backed Down | 70c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…b329backed Down | 54c | 144.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Down | 39c | 124.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d7…e559backed Up | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…b2adbacked Up | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…c27bbacked Up | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked Up | 40c | 98.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29f0…eb05backed Down | 72c | 97.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed Down | 47c | 95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 50c | 71.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82bd…5acbbacked Down | 51c | 51.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Down | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Up | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…f5ffbacked Up | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked Down | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Up | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…ef79backed Up | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea4…efe6backed Up | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Up | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9223…fb06backed Down | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Up | 45c | 43.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…fd1dbacked Down | 68c | 40.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…bc3bbacked Down | 50c | 36.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e8…b14fbacked Up | 51c | 28.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…ebf4backed Down | 41c | 27.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Down | 71c | 22.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.