NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a8aeb4b93c51100c78085eadb76a9b5b0c0b3c82174d021e24e2924482e251f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Over | 53c | 22,106$11,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,716.18 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…ff17backed Under | 49c | 7,969$3,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,067.71 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 47c | 7,586$3,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,020.32 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 47c | 7,350$3,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,895.36 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Under | 48c | 4,219$2,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,194.09 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Over | 53c | 2,661$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.43 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Over | 51c | 2,300$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 2,163$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.39 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 53c | 1,388$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.33 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 51c | 1,327$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.6 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 47c | 1,145$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.11 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 282 | 45.4%128 W · 154 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa239…89d6backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…6130backed Over | 51c | 685$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.7 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 47c | 630$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.78 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Under | 49c | 611$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.2 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Under | 48c | 442.77$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.24 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Under | 49c | 436.14$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.43 | 618 | 35.4%219 W · 399 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Over | 52c | 366.92$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 853 | 44%375 W · 478 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed Over | 53c | 333.26$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…6133backed Under | 49c | 259.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Over | 42c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Over | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Under | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…fe52backed Over | 51c | 79.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Over | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a6…4a2abacked Over | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…45d7backed Over | 53c | 54.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 46c | 45.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Under | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 563 | 52%293 W · 270 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb4…da3cbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 221.5this page
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Pacers won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 216.5Under won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. PacersPacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.