NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdec231ed10eb4472645eededf70bc5002ed1361da527ff3f4dc71919873acb2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Thunder, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Pacers | 53c | 52,724$27,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,773.1 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked Thunder | 47c | 30,716$14,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,436.38 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…e8e4backed Pacers | 52c | 17,185$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,184.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Thunder | 47c | 10,693$5,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,025.71 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…8898backed Thunder | 48c | 10,500$5,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,039.98 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Pacers | 52c | 4,200$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf892…7f58backed Thunder | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 47c | 3,369$1,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.43 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Thunder | 48c | 3,308$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.74 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder | 47c | 2,539$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.23 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Thunder | 48c | 1,339$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.61 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Pacers | 55c | 1,238$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.44 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder | 46c | 1,183$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.27 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Thunder | 45c | 988.66$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.9 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Thunder | 47c | 833.75$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.2 | 157 | 24.2%38 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…5ba5backed Thunder | 50c | 805.15$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Pacers | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Thunder | 46c | 569.48$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.44 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pacers | 50c | 549.48$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.91 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Thunder | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pacers | 58c | 447$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.21 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea6…674dbacked Thunder | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…4faebacked Pacers | 53c | 407.51$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Pacers | 53c | 400$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.33 | 853 | 44%375 W · 478 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Pacers | 54c | 393.57$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.04 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…6133backed Thunder | 48c | 260$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…55a0backed Pacers | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x328f…e16cbacked Pacers | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Pacers | 52c | 190.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Pacers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…93e7backed Pacers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d0…6b56backed Pacers | 53c | 158.55$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Pacers | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Thunder | 48c | 111$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…c054backed Pacers | 53c | 102.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Pacers | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pacers | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Pacers | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pacers | 51c | 95.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7295…fc62backed Pacers | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…3d96backed Pacers | 59c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Thunder | 46c | 60.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Thunder | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Thunder | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Pacers | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Thunder | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Pacers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…eea3backed Thunder | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Thunder | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Pacers | 52c | 22.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Pacers won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 216.5Under won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 221.5Under won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. PacersPacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.