NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bea6532ba8a5749d5ff9a4d1e0f86c2a98dfac6664fbd8ab51163e2bb820529
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Thunder, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Pacers | 58c | 16,981$9,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,087.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder | 42c | 6,500$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,730 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Pacers | 60c | 5,938$3,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,387.57 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Thunder | 42c | 5,769$2,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,422.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder | 41c | 3,488$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.77 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Thunder | 42c | 1,500$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Thunder | 38c | 1,400$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Thunder | 45c | 1,381$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.45 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Thunder | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 40c | 862.15$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.86 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder | 40c | 709.5$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.34 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Thunder | 42c | 507.99$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.53 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Thunder | 24c | 422.62$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Thunder | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Pacers | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Thunder | 41c | 225$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 853 | 44%375 W · 478 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Thunder | 44c | 133.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…1b66backed Thunder | 44c | 113.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…c3bbbacked Thunder | 45c | 87.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Thunder | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Pacers | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d4…f320backed Pacers | 60c | 46.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Pacers | 52c | 32.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4761…c530backed Pacers | 58c | 23.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Pacers | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f29…1e12backed Pacers | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Pacers won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 216.5Under won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 221.5Under won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. PacersPacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.