NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5aac8c9ec0acf654f993f2b12ff9022bb79496e53779b95bd3ca0f9afea43a01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 48c | 8,264$3,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,979 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 52c | 7,538$3,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,613.13 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa42e…9a1cbacked Over | 54c | 5,839$3,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,705.92 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 3c | 5,002$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.89 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +7.1wins | +0.27per pick | 11cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 2,690$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.7 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 46c | 2,358$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.08 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 25c | 2,304$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.14 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 23c | 2,109$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.13 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 51c | 2,014$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.76 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 1,803$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.42 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Over | 51c | 1,736$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.79 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Over | 52c | 1,502$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.39 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 50c | 1,500$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 16c | 1,268$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.29 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 893.94$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.24 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 3c | 776.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 53c | 481.8$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.45 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd0…190abacked Under | 22c | 463.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 14c | 422.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 417.13$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.33 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 49c | 399.32$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.67 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x485e…fcb5backed Under | 14c | 372.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 47c | 279$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.9 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 51c | 249.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 248.5$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.7 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 46c | 240$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Under | 8c | 218.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 13c | 158.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 9c | 150.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 18c | 115.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 52c | 102.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 46c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ad…69ccbacked Under | 50c | 70.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 47c | 63.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 48c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 26c | 54.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 53c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 53c | 41.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Over | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Under | 28c | 40.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 189 | 46%87 W · 102 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Over | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d79…7181backed Over | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Over | 74c | 34.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -9.6wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Under | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Over | 56c | 26.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 51c | 23.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. PanthersLightning won
- Lightning vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.