CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b28c83e1332bcd279eb0d23c9eeb46b004d57c85c3f56abdf3265a6db018c8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ReThinkof ReThink, Wingman
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ccc…77abbacked Wingman | 71c | 782.79$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.67 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Wingman | 10c | 573.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed ReThink | 50c | 401.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.43 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed ReThink | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.62 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed ReThink | 57c | 377.66$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.02 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed ReThink | 23c | 371.01$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.52 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Wingman | 70c | 331.5$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.5 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Wingman | 28c | 317.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.14 | 600 | 32.3%194 W · 406 L | -49.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Wingman | 52c | 312.92$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.78 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed Wingman | 57c | 255.74$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.24 | 773 | 51.2%396 W · 377 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdec…8102backed Wingman | 57c | 214.52$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.04 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…87e7backed ReThink | 52c | 194.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.65 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed ReThink | 43c | 190.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.73 | 576 | 41.5%239 W · 337 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked ReThink | 45c | 186.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.34 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked ReThink | 41c | 186.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.17 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Wingman | 50c | 183.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Wingman | 50c | 176$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ReThink | 24c | 169.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.59 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7380…9019backed ReThink | 45c | 112.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed ReThink | 29c | 103.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Wingman | 50c | 97.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Wingman | 50c | 93.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked ReThink | 38c | 81.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 333 | 40.2%134 W · 199 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…1e43backed Wingman | 62c | 80.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 54.7%129 W · 107 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Wingman | 62c | 80.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Wingman | 54c | 80.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked ReThink | 35c | 73.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Wingman | 46c | 72.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Wingman | 57c | 67.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed ReThink | 25c | 66.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 890 | 46.1%410 W · 480 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…5607backed Wingman | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed ReThink | 48c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Wingman | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 404 | 49.8%201 W · 203 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed ReThink | 39c | 59.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed Wingman | 49c | 52.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked ReThink | 54c | 50.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd37…9d71backed Wingman | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Wingman | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Wingman | 71c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 100 | 29%29 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…5e36backed Wingman | 53c | 37.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 239 | 56.5%135 W · 104 L | +15.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed ReThink | 51c | 34.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Wingman | 50c | 32.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Wingman | 54c | 27.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 512 | 52.1%267 W · 245 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Wingman | 46c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0xfbac…ecc4backed Wingman | 63c | 25.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 188 | 41.5%78 W · 110 L | -19.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…2184backed ReThink | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…f26ebacked ReThink | 48c | 24.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 162 | 36.4%59 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.