Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b32da800af6444efcbdcf7318459f2012eb1becc181d77f295a93be416cef2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 79c | 456.79$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 49c | 299.36$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.58 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 290.92$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 252.4$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.29 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 52c | 203.03$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 9c | 179.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 174.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 160.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 46c | 157.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 48c | 152$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 146.17$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 64c | 112.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 50c | 108.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 106.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 102.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 46c | 92.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 21c | 91.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 56c | 88.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 50c | 79.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 76.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 58c | 72.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 44c | 69.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 68.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 38c | 68.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 38c | 68.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 45c | 60.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 59.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 57.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 22c | 51.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 58c | 50.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 49c | 50.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 44c | 45.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 52c | 42.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 24c | 42.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 37c | 41.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 48c | 38.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 36.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 36.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 52c | 35.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 48c | 35.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 40c | 31.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 30.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 57c | 30.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 30.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 29.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 52c | 25.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 47c | 25.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 50c | 23.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…35c9backed Yes | 60c | 23.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 47c | 22.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…963dbacked Yes | 52c | 20.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…d603backed Yes | 52c | 20.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…d9dabacked Yes | 52c | 20.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…0c18backed Yes | 52c | 20.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…a644backed Yes | 52c | 20.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020c…f6c9backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.