Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b3c1a641b484ca9fc2df23a8daf18f1fe75291260239e2bcd22cfa2d8470906
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 45c | 672.96$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.63 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 49c | 522.94$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.32 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 61c | 328.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 33c | 314.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 53c | 228.8$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 203.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 61c | 195.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 186.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 40c | 184.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 49c | 178.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 166.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 145.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 128$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 122.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 119.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 115.27$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 114.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 66c | 98.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 94.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 89.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 48c | 81.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 37c | 77.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 41c | 68.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 66c | 67.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 58.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 58.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 57c | 54.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 54.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 52.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 64c | 46.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 41.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 63c | 39.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 39.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 67c | 36.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 36.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 65c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 35.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 51c | 34.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 35c | 31.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 30.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 64c | 29.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 36c | 29.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 55c | 26.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 23.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24d…4e75backed No | 66c | 21.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 59c | 20.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 20.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 18.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 18.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.