Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b456085ffc5e984f322e31d1f2aeeb626fac35a0e2b17718af514fe61d54b01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe02a…2bc6backed Yes | 70c | 663.17$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 7c | 585.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 321.24$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…851abacked No | 3c | 306.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…84fbbacked Yes | 40c | 294.75$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.23 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 279.03$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…1b6dbacked No | 67c | 247.97$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 5c | 242.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 35c | 229.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.22 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked Yes | 31c | 220$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 69c | 210.7$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.94 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 171$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.49 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 162.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 153.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 129.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 34c | 119.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 118.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…8c9ebacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…fc29backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…f425backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 95.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 60c | 86.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 85.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 84.16$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 28c | 81.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 71.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 33c | 67.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 43c | 65.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 65c | 61.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 22c | 57.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 34c | 53.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 67c | 51.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 40c | 50.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 64c | 49.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 33c | 45.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 43.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe4…dd93backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf084…89d8backed Yes | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd630…28edbacked Yes | 39c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfecd…eb97backed No | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…0917backed No | 68c | 29.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 69c | 28.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed No | 65c | 22.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 68c | 21.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d8…5e9abacked Yes | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…14f7backed Yes | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 15.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.