Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5b96e1fd956ac9aca6b15cf7a80635ca9cea00df0127d8f8fef3d907ab91ccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 5,267$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.51 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 10c | 1,100$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…8e64backed No | 52c | 965.16$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 9c | 305$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 252$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 20c | 249.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 53c | 247.6$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 241.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 29c | 220.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 63c | 198.87$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked No | 47c | 185.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.78 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 30c | 180.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 156.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 142.37$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…98c7backed Yes | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 33c | 129.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 119.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 104$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 51c | 102.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 55c | 100.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 94.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 89.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e97…a3d7backed Yes | 52c | 86.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 74.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 56.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 56.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 25c | 53.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 48c | 53.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 52.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fe…5934backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d78…2650backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd739…ecb6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 28c | 49.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 47.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 43c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…ec3abacked Yes | 53c | 40.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 28c | 40.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c13…3007backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…17fcbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 73c | 34.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 70c | 32.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…ee24backed No | 75c | 32.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed No | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…9279backed Yes | 35c | 28.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc680…6865backed Yes | 55c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 55c | 27.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 55c | 26.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ed…bb68backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 70c | 20.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 49c | 20.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe4…dd93backed Yes | 60c | 19.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 57c | 18.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9740…2eeebacked No | 69c | 15.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.