Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b57be0493a30ab981621479b843b30dc298eee3c3d967d07db3e751828c4115
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 45c | 1,035$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.49 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 77c | 545.06$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.45 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed Yes | 56c | 320$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.23 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 44c | 216.78$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 49c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.83 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 56c | 178.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 153.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed No | 59c | 140.28$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 49c | 111.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 41c | 91.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked No | 51c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 54c | 67.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 55c | 66.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 61.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 61.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xff4a…ae50backed Yes | 50c | 60.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…d603backed Yes | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 53c | 59.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 55c | 55.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba76…b233backed Yes | 50c | 53.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 56c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 50c | 44.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 50c | 42.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked Yes | 52c | 42.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…f53abacked Yes | 49c | 41.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 44c | 40.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 48c | 38.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 45c | 37.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…e8d0backed No | 48c | 36.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 40c | 35.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 50c | 34.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 57c | 34.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 40c | 33.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…aa50backed Yes | 52c | 30.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 52c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 61c | 23.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 54c | 20.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 60c | 20.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7d…22c1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 55c | 18.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 17?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.