Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b6545531ea7aa570f428c9d7eaa267e1d5c3953c6e39ec37bb34ff81a3d15b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 1,449$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 936.25$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 19c | 646$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.71 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 371.25$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 303.95$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 20c | 292$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 240.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 23c | 235.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 208.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 15c | 199.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 77c | 178.94$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 58c | 140.77$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 25c | 132.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 22c | 112.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 99.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 78c | 97.49$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 96.63$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 78c | 94.62$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 75c | 92.73$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 79c | 89.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 22c | 83.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 15c | 83.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 16c | 79.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 30c | 75.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 79c | 72.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 70.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 60.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 60.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 24c | 59.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x753e…27babacked Yes | 39c | 59.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…aa80backed Yes | 31c | 53.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 52.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 52c | 47.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 23c | 47.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 39.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 79c | 35.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 34.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…d5d9backed No | 74c | 26.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 79c | 16.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 78c | 15.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 75c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C or below on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.