Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7f1a712786829c73d9a38b5561890ea0f120e0dcf8f00d32769a00487ef9fb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 30c | 1,342$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.5 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 494.11$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 491.75$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.08 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 67c | 428$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.05 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 279.98$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 26c | 275.51$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 28c | 239.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 32c | 230$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 29c | 208.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 196$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 177.62$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 71c | 174$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 147.62$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 140.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 136.89$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 135.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 32c | 129.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 30c | 116.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 31c | 110.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 104$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 29c | 101.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…efdfbacked Yes | 35c | 99.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 72c | 98.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 66c | 98.25$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 73c | 96.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 71c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 82.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 80.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 79.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 73.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 28c | 67.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 38c | 60.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 26c | 57.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 30c | 56.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 53.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 53.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 52.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 30c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 29c | 51.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…5cecbacked Yes | 32c | 48.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x753e…27babacked Yes | 38c | 45.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 45.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 37c | 40.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 33c | 38.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 72c | 35.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 63c | 33.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 31.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 30.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…896ebacked Yes | 38c | 29.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 71c | 28.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed No | 74c | 22.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 21.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 61c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0c…b790backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 76c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 73c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C or below on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.