College Football · resolved market
Will LSU beat South Carolina by 8 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b736ccb3f95287b1178f961960a2f88f381e4ce9275306e8f8a6136335b6891
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed No | 61c | 3,425$2,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.61 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 41c | 1,998$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.11 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb00…4b24backed Yes | 38c | 1,719$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked No | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,263$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.37 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 36c | 750$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Yes | 39c | 575.61$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.49 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…82fbbacked Yes | 38c | 457.59$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.3 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 39c | 438.63$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.07 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked No | 62c | 418.31$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.96 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 35c | 367.59$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.01 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 65c | 249.22$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 76c | 233.06$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…d62ebacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…676abacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 55c | 99.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 35c | 92.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…5b91backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed No | 57c | 46.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LSU beat South Carolina by 8 or more points?this page
- Will LSU beat South Carolina?LSU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.