College Football · resolved market
Boise State vs. Air Force
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b81b85be5b5533df6241d41c06e1a46b03ab4b8a300f969e14213da8e72c6c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boise Stateof Boise State, Air Force
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x781c…db68backed Air Force | 6c | 5,232$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.83 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Boise State | 78c | 2,500$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf410…ca73backed Air Force | 22c | 2,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Boise State | 76c | 1,472$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.24 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Air Force | 1c | 1,372$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 81 | 4.9%4 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Air Force | 24c | 1,259$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.16 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Air Force | 22c | 1,182$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.93 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Air Force | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Air Force | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…50c9backed Air Force | 11c | 993.02$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Boise State | 77c | 978.23$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Air Force | 3c | 813$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Air Force | 6c | 566.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Boise State | 77c | 555.87$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.85 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac0…b10abacked Boise State | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Air Force | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Boise State | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Air Force | 22c | 451.37$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…a067backed Air Force | 3c | 334$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Air Force | 11c | 291$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Boise State | 78c | 280.76$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…c04bbacked Air Force | 25c | 158.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Air Force | 17c | 158$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Boise State | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Boise State | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Boise State | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Air Force | 13c | 122.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Air Force | 11c | 117$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Boise State | 77c | 112$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Air Force | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80a…0574backed Boise State | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…74c8backed Air Force | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Air Force | 11c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 24cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Air Force | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c3…cc1ebacked Boise State | 77c | 84.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Air Force | 22c | 81.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…dfeebacked Boise State | 79c | 69.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d23…71bcbacked Air Force | 23c | 67.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e6…ca7cbacked Boise State | 78c | 67.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Air Force | 22c | 55.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…8ab1backed Boise State | 78c | 53.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef89…73e2backed Boise State | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…a752backed Boise State | 78c | 34.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 73cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Boise State | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Boise State | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed Boise State | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7b…f0bbbacked Boise State | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4140…195fbacked Boise State | 79c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boise State vs. Air Forcethis page
- Boise State vs. Air Force: O/U 51.5Over won
- Spread: Boise State (-11.5)Boise State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.