Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b9a62f744acda654597b1068a7b370efbc7e8354e3573fe824e070fab1cc07e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 26c | 14,703$3,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,768.4 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…b988backed No | 74c | 9,489$7,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,467.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb526…613abacked Yes | 0c | 9,125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 76c | 5,427$4,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.74 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 70cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 4c | 3,504$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,985$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.48 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Yes | 26c | 1,926$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 67c | 1,320$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.18 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed No | 75c | 1,200$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…63d5backed Yes | 13c | 1,100$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 3c | 933$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 33c | 897$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.01 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 2c | 751.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…acacbacked No | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 68cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed No | 75c | 669.77$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.77 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…8832backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62a…aecfbacked Yes | 8c | 471.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked No | 76c | 415.55$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…937abacked Yes | 10c | 370$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 3c | 353.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf20…3189backed Yes | 9c | 336.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…4593backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 74c | 259.92$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 23c | 231.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked No | 76c | 210.41$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…97f5backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…127cbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 33c | 192$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd642…c499backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Yes | 33c | 148.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…f32fbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked No | 79c | 127.39$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…29e8backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 73c | 111.31$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 33c | 111$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe060…c21cbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 18c | 78.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Yes | 34c | 72.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 32c | 65.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Yes | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf1…3e27backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…4b15backed No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…2941backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…a896backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 30 | 93.3%28 W · 2 L | +7.8wins | +0.26per pick | 67cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x95a9…4352backed No | 75c | 37.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 34c | 30.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…30d9backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 27.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…3c8bbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…6367backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 67c | 15.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-10?this page
- Will SV Werder Bremen vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?No won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-01-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.