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MLB · resolved market

Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Francisco Giantsof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,138
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,138 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants75c9,408$7,056 inWon+$2,352.0911,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks25c9,204$2,301 inLost-$2,300.8912,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants72c785.75$569 inWon+$217.211,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1440…1a39backed Arizona Diamondbacks28c495.11$139 inLost-$138.632450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5410…dcc7backed Arizona Diamondbacks26c385.45$100 inLost-$10012128.1%34 W · 87 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks26c163.78$42 inLost-$42.318,48447.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L+79.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Arizona Diamondbacks26c54.65$14 inLost-$14.2158254.3%316 W · 266 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8232…e71dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks25c53.76$13 inLost-$13.444542.2%19 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks25c47.6$12 inLost-$11.947552.4%249 W · 226 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed San Francisco Giants77c46.77$36 inWon+$10.7669447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed San Francisco Giants76c36.76$28 inWon+$8.691,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed San Francisco Giants69c22.9$16 inWon+$7.12,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.