MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b3fda45f604befdb892225dd97a4135eccb33e823adc3583090262a17f325b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 1,510$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 1,510$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…b8dbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 1c | 843.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 747.5$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.48 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 657.7$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 591.3$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.37 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 558.43$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.45 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 539.45$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.57 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 459.99$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.4 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Francisco Giants | 72c | 416.64$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 19c | 335.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 323.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 292.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.69 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 74c | 271.13$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 205.68$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 198.89$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…c60dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 179.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 158.22$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 114.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a24…a0fdbacked San Francisco Giants | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 25c | 96.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddd6…4e4dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 88.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 65.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 22c | 60.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 40.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 34.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 30.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 23.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed San Francisco Giants | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 17.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.