MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe259a4ea523e33b43f22b5f7c0592cfc3f9173d24569edd9bdf835e452c80d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 30c | 5,963$1,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,148.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 5,713$3,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,960.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 4,093$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Under | 64c | 3,033$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.06 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 2,150$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 53c | 2,076$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 64c | 2,055$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.52 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 16c | 1,167$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.26 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 1,132$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.71 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…b8dbbacked Over | 3c | 1,008$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522d…3913backed Over | 57c | 704.71$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 62c | 692.75$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.36 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…db18backed Under | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 50c | 468.5$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.25 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 62c | 359.5$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.45 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…60c0backed Over | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 45c | 229$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.95 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 46c | 179.35$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 47c | 106.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 38c | 105$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 35c | 101.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 49c | 100.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 63c | 83.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 41c | 76.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 43c | 73.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…e71dbacked Over | 69c | 61.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 70c | 58.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 74c | 55.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…c08dbacked Under | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 70c | 46.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 52c | 43.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 31c | 40.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 73c | 39.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 71c | 37.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…1d04backed Under | 39c | 36.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 70c | 32.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…8b7ebacked Over | 70c | 32.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 73cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…a377backed Over | 70c | 26.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 41c | 25.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Over | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…93c3backed Over | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 58c | 20.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 70c | 14.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.