Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b9d5d900cdcedc9a594a38a9f536dbc55fa67367e5cb26743d888bbdb4632fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 732.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 333.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 195.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 194.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 16c | 175.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 13c | 170.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 159.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 152.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 22c | 152.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 126.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 114.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 11c | 113$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 110.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 11c | 104.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 102.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 19c | 92.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed Yes | 22c | 90.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…a41ebacked Yes | 17c | 90.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 87.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 19c | 81.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 14c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 21c | 78.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 26c | 77.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 30c | 69.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 65.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 27c | 65.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 19c | 64.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 23c | 59.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 59.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 56.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 54.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 74c | 53.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 22c | 53.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 28c | 53.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 50.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 23c | 49.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 48.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 72c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 25.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 73c | 20.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 16.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…8f82backed No | 75c | 15.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f3…74c9backed No | 77c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.