Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa436d4eca458e9da57bc6a4aa7c327e078f047a1fb31901bc1d12c0bfdb15393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 640.86$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.58 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 535.84$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 429.5$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 43c | 332.98$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.8 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 302.74$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 279.71$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…9d99backed No | 55c | 277.68$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.67 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 55c | 272.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed No | 55c | 272.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…5f64backed No | 55c | 172.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 160.52$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 67c | 143.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 33c | 143.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.95 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 58c | 138.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 138$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 132.42$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 117.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 46c | 108.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 40c | 104.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 101.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 45c | 100.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…8bd5backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 42c | 99.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 97.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 88.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 85.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 33c | 85.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 80.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 79.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 59c | 76.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 48c | 70.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 29c | 70.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 41c | 68.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 54c | 66.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 57c | 65.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…d837backed Yes | 62c | 62.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 32c | 58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 40c | 57.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 44c | 57.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 56.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 71c | 56.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 54.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 34c | 54.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 57c | 51.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 59c | 51.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed No | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 41c | 48.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 47.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 47.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 60c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 40c | 44.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed No | 36c | 41.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 47c | 36.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 38c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 63c | 35.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 35.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 57c | 34.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 42c | 32.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 57c | 31.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 41c | 30.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 29.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 44c | 28.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 25.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 24.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 23.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 22.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 57c | 20.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 55c | 18.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.