Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d4ec385d2142bcb287f4b0c0c1aa034f24e3b54ef4b485679c9bb23338c0d4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 1,292$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.43 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 601.46$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 555.25$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.68 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 442.31$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.92 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 429.68$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 344.57$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 33c | 300.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 298.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 24c | 293.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 15c | 248.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 235.74$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 189.68$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 21c | 188.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 21c | 180$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…a2c1backed Yes | 76c | 160.04$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.29 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 159.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 154.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 147.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 61c | 144.18$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 137$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 133.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 15c | 120.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 27c | 104$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 19c | 101.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 78c | 98.83$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 97.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 21c | 96.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 25c | 95.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…e0d4backed Yes | 63c | 87.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 12c | 86.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa9…6a4fbacked Yes | 69c | 78.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 76.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 22c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39f3…74c9backed Yes | 23c | 73.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 69.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 68.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 17c | 68.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 66.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked Yes | 78c | 57.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 20c | 56.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 41c | 55.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 54.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 76c | 52.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 21c | 52.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 78c | 50.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…d999backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 64c | 46.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 46.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 72c | 40.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 71c | 37.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0658…41b5backed Yes | 39c | 32.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 75c | 32.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 31c | 32.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfb…35f2backed Yes | 35c | 31.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 71c | 29.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 29.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 44c | 29.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 69c | 28.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 77c | 28.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 28.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…c4f4backed Yes | 71c | 28.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 28.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 65c | 27.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 67c | 27.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…2ba9backed Yes | 67c | 26.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 26.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed Yes | 76c | 26.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 79c | 24.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 72c | 23.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 23.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 51c | 22.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc997…44f1backed No | 71c | 20.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 55c | 20.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 18.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 16.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 15.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 15.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 70c | 14.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 70c | 14.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 74c | 13.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 78c | 13.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.