NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Kings: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bab4b1ce3dee06acc1467511ae07a7f1186e6e1a3353e48e4786b12d4685cd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 60c | 1,745$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.41 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 1,172$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 29c | 1,013$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.79 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 34c | 849.18$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.04 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 718.64$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.12 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Under | 72c | 607.92$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.89 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 29c | 343.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.22 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a5…525abacked Under | 55c | 309.09$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178d…0b05backed Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Under | 39c | 294.6$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1537…cb30backed Under | 71c | 236.47$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 54c | 182.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…70a0backed Under | 80c | 175.1$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.5wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…d2ecbacked Under | 69c | 145.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a5…1633backed Under | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…bb7cbacked Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe045…66a8backed Under | 40c | 125.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Under | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Under | 70c | 90.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 35c | 87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 51c | 84.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 31c | 72.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Under | 71c | 70.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 31c | 60.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…dff3backed Under | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 30c | 54.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca8…ddddbacked Under | 71c | 42.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 71c | 42.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe760…aadcbacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 48.7%74 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7481…279fbacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…888fbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa798…4240backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e27…3837backed Under | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Kings: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Rockets won
- Rockets vs. KingsKings won
- Rockets vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Kings: O/U 222.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Kings: O/U 225.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-11.5)Kings won
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.