Tennis · resolved market
Will Daniil Medvedev win Wimbledon Men's?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5be37d6978579605fa3645a233b2e647b8027a4ae42b8bb3336758b0b96af2d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 4c | 3,253$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.69 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 9c | 2,500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 220 | 37.7%83 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…17fbbacked Yes | 13c | 2,251$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 13c | 2,149$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.42 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed Yes | 3c | 2,055$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3956backed Yes | 3c | 1,769$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 14c | 1,689$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.9 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…b84bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…436ebacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0689…151bbacked Yes | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2852…2d6cbacked Yes | 3c | 377.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…eea1backed Yes | 14c | 272$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Yes | 13c | 226.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Yes | 12c | 200.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 12c | 181.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f2…b488backed Yes | 11c | 144.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 20c | 77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniil Medvedev win Wimbledon Men's?this page
- Will Alex De Minaur win Wimbledon Men's?No won
- Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon Men's?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon Men's?Yes won
- Will Hubert Hurkacz win Wimbledon Men's?No won
- Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon Men's?No won
- Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon Men's?No won
- Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon Men's?No won
- Will another player win Wimbledon Men's?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.