Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bf76968a88bd1c3cc8d12c2ed167c496732c43157f7db0179ccf7a48f0f8cd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4a2…cb17backed Yes | 0c | 6,703$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 3c | 2,966$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.37 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked Yes | 6c | 2,900$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.92 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 4c | 1,540$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,338$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.99 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 11c | 1,045$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 856.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 6c | 807.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 9c | 643.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 7c | 599.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 570.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 8c | 545.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes | 12c | 515.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 15c | 508.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 9c | 476.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 475$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes | 11c | 448.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 11c | 445.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 11c | 428.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…c535backed Yes | 8c | 404.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…ee19backed Yes | 15c | 392.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 15c | 330.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes | 6c | 321.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 14c | 275$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 271.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…c029backed Yes | 18c | 263.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 6c | 254.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 9c | 253$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked Yes | 13c | 239$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 11c | 216.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 11c | 212.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 12c | 209.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…9991backed Yes | 8c | 209.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +232.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 206.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaf…9a28backed Yes | 24c | 205.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 10c | 204.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8683…d8bbbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 17c | 194.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 9c | 194$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 192.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc5…af1cbacked Yes | 10c | 190.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 76 | 9.2%7 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 6c | 190$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63d9…ff49backed Yes | 9c | 161.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed Yes | 7c | 149.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 7c | 146.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 16c | 144.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 9c | 132.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 9c | 127.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 16c | 127.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…747bbacked Yes | 10c | 123$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +208%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed Yes | 12c | 121.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x049e…55b1backed Yes | 14c | 109.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe329…4adbbacked Yes | 14c | 107.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 13c | 98.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes | 19c | 97.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 21c | 88.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 27c | 65.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 23c | 60.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed No | 79c | 16.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…260fbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…b06dbacked No | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C or below on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.