TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,707
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,004

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,707 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes6c2,117$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.924442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes24c1,682$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.777323.3%17 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes25c1,618$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.496852.9%36 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed No78c1,235$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.9827047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes14c1,174$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.4559923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5a0…5254backed No76c982.03$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.051464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a8…12eabacked No78c979.4$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.244850%24 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes21c953.84$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.229922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes34c830.44$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.8548331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes36c713.62$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.7895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed Yes29c609.28$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.32040%8 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6a…db19backed Yes20c539.47$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3314719.7%29 W · 118 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+126.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No65c513.58$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9517243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed Yes15c465.45$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.328017.5%14 W · 66 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes29c437.2$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.224,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes23c436.08$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.427229.2%21 W · 51 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed Yes42c431.72$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes40c409.32$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.0426339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes13c381.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1333620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes14c381.15$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.672,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes22c378.65$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.549429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x712f…65cfbacked No68c325.99$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.771741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8278…9464backed Yes14c305.37$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1313250%66 W · 66 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No69c293.47$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.193,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes33c228.04$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.252,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Yes33c223.96$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8412744.9%57 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes15c221.11$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8124216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c6…5587backed No76c219.99$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c212.59$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc34…e42dbacked Yes18c212.52$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.112313%3 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-81.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes28c205.32$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.93,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes24c199.77$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes23c197.85$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6247834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7552…5845backed Yes20c197.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.183234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes27c191.48$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2432548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8da…22e9backed Yes34c190.36$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.821450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes8c190$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9266543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda89…8a6cbacked Yes24c176.77$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.051637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Yes35c152.65$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.953056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes33c149.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.91,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes35c143.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.32,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7458…fa86backed Yes28c140$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.22326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d8e…3d55backed Yes19c133.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.811080%8 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+55.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xe201…3f41backed Yes33c127.27$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.834040%16 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-30%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes30c121.79$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.956258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe17b…6f98backed Yes33c112.5$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4310150.5%51 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes31c107.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.911,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…6197backed Yes27c103.75$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.625839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes36c101.85$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4334651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.523633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa381…5fc5backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3428737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked No73c99.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No50c98.52$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.261,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes34c98.01$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8911359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5fe8…2914backed Yes17c97.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe523…09ddbacked No70c96.33$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.366647%31 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Yes31c88.77$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.354548.9%22 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+50.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes33c85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7765934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3617…98b4backed No66c83.33$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.33425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed No67c81.38$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9127560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7e3…4a3bbacked Yes13c81.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.431729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d8c…0977backed Yes31c76.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246315.9%10 W · 53 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-63.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9c8…f330backed Yes18c74.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.55545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes27c74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9829642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes28c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.611835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes20c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1425725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No70c69.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes32c69.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0954037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes29c69.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5eaf…9a28backed No72c69.01$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.01850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes27c64.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5416924.3%41 W · 128 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…fcf7backed Yes32c62.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+160.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb182…005fbacked No67c61.22$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0560033.8%203 W · 397 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9417…28a3backed No71c61.07$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.98139.5%32 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1104…daadbacked No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No68c58.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3834457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes28c56.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.655540%22 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2bf…5892backed Yes27c54.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.647233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ed9…c127backed Yes34c52.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.915056%28 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89a4…c685backed Yes21c51.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes33c51.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.955919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17b…3f39backed Yes33c50.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.521233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed Yes28c47.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.614517.8%8 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x049f…c09ebacked Yes29c47.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.962619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-48.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d7…c0d4backed Yes36c47.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d6…8a40backed No68c46.68$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.792245.5%10 W · 12 L-4.9wins-0.22per pick68cpaid-31.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x0967…0c60backed No71c45.95$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3218860.1%113 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b1b…a70bbacked Yes36c41.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.821136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd555…fdbabacked Yes30c40.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.241643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c6e…6561backed Yes37c40.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.663026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0032…e886backed Yes34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.613537.8%51 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f7f…171bbacked No66c37.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.875052%26 W · 24 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd6c…744ebacked Yes38c36.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.131338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07f6…2ed5backed No62c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33531.4%11 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.