Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd126a125a5fddaae3d5cbfc15b9ce0ab2d820a008c8f4fa50733a149ac47b2f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,117$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 24c | 1,682$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.77 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 25c | 1,618$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.49 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 78c | 1,235$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.98 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 14c | 1,174$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.45 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a0…5254backed No | 76c | 982.03$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.05 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked No | 78c | 979.4$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.24 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 21c | 953.84$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 34c | 830.44$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.85 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 36c | 713.62$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.78 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Yes | 29c | 609.28$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.3 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 20c | 539.47$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 65c | 513.58$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.95 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 15c | 465.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 437.2$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.22 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 23c | 436.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 42c | 431.72$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 40c | 409.32$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.04 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 13c | 381.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 381.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 22c | 378.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked No | 68c | 325.99$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 14c | 305.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 293.47$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.19 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 228.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 33c | 223.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 15c | 221.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c6…5587backed No | 76c | 219.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 212.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…e42dbacked Yes | 18c | 212.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 205.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 199.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 23c | 197.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed Yes | 20c | 197.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 27c | 191.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…22e9backed Yes | 34c | 190.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 8c | 190$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…8a6cbacked Yes | 24c | 176.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed Yes | 35c | 152.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 33c | 149.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 143.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Yes | 19c | 133.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed Yes | 33c | 127.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 30c | 121.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 33c | 112.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 107.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 27c | 103.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 36c | 101.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa381…5fc5backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 98.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 34c | 98.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe8…2914backed Yes | 17c | 97.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked No | 70c | 96.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 31c | 88.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 33c | 85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3617…98b4backed No | 66c | 83.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 67c | 81.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e3…4a3bbacked Yes | 13c | 81.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 31c | 76.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 18c | 74.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 32c | 69.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 29c | 69.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaf…9a28backed No | 72c | 69.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 27c | 64.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…fcf7backed Yes | 32c | 62.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked No | 67c | 61.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 71c | 61.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…daadbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 68c | 58.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 28c | 56.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 27c | 54.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Yes | 34c | 52.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…c685backed Yes | 21c | 51.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 33c | 51.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17b…3f39backed Yes | 33c | 50.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 28c | 47.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x049f…c09ebacked Yes | 29c | 47.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…c0d4backed Yes | 36c | 47.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed No | 68c | 46.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 71c | 45.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…a70bbacked Yes | 36c | 41.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…fdbabacked Yes | 30c | 40.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 37c | 40.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 66c | 37.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6c…744ebacked Yes | 38c | 36.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C or below on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.