MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c00a3cacf38ca690228b1092a8437604cf6e61c4adef6925ffa2deaf8bd1a53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Miami Marlins, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Athletics | 62c | 557.73$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.94 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics | 59c | 455.87$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.15 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 444.23$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 424.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.74 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 394.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Athletics | 36c | 297$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.88 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Athletics | 27c | 283.21$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.39 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Athletics | 43c | 283$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.26 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 264.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 78c | 245$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 194.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Athletics | 63c | 158.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 52c | 147.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Athletics | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Athletics | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Athletics | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 89.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Athletics | 36c | 83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Athletics | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked Athletics | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Athletics | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 54c | 62.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Athletics | 57c | 52.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 44.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Athletics | 60c | 25.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac2…4fd8backed Athletics | 60c | 22.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Athletics | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. AthleticsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-7.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-8.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.