TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Miami Marlins vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$278,638
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$326,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,638 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 257 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf152…64aabacked Athletics53c29,216$15,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,372.1377053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins47c19,737$9,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,460.823,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins76c19,395$14,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,650.8811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics31c15,636$4,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,849.7810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Athletics53c15,000$7,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,949.9948952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics53c14,674$7,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,7771,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Athletics45c13,290$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.9998149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins47c8,000$3,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,239.985,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6193…5b80backed Athletics21c6,964$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.1123146.8%108 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Miami Marlins48c6,542$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,401.842,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Athletics29c5,416$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.078,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca97…49f6backed Miami Marlins61c4,948$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,947.924860.4%29 W · 19 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins47c4,886$2,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,589.834,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics9c3,195$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.024,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0df…5974backed Miami Marlins48c3,125$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,62522257.2%127 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Miami Marlins47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.9924639%96 W · 150 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Miami Marlins47c2,766$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.9619250%96 W · 96 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Athletics53c2,535$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.791,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x49d6…ea7bbacked Athletics4c2,473$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010913.8%15 W · 94 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Athletics8c2,406$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.7882636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Athletics10c2,037$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.4197050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Athletics10c2,017$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.56,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6790backed Miami Marlins58c1,960$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.792365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f0b…5577backed Miami Marlins48c1,927$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.0829449.7%146 W · 148 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Athletics53c1,899$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.4391252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Athletics42c1,742$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.161,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Athletics1c1,690$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.094754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics4c1,644$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.73,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Miami Marlins56c1,634$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.552,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins78c1,486$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.0812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Athletics11c1,475$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.391,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Athletics18c1,344$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.2271850.1%360 W · 358 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics20c1,294$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.354,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe478…28eabacked Miami Marlins48c1,250$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6506858.8%40 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Athletics9c1,232$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.756,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics16c1,039$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.758,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Miami Marlins47c1,024$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.722,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins47c953.08$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.136,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Athletics7c914.37$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.262114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick19cpaid+2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2972…3f29backed Miami Marlins56c810.71$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.717950.6%40 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0182…301cbacked Miami Marlins59c801.08$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.448862.5%55 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Athletics10c798.61$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2231848.7%155 W · 163 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…36f4backed Miami Marlins49c789.12$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.451346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de9…5289backed Miami Marlins47c750$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.554945.4%249 W · 300 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Miami Marlins48c687.5$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.594549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Athletics53c679.25$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36018649.5%92 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19bd…ae36backed Athletics3c667.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018652.7%98 W · 88 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd335…fe54backed Miami Marlins48c618.13$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.437957%45 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked Athletics8c596.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6425950.2%130 W · 129 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Athletics21c576.17$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.811,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Athletics17c556.88$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2594034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Miami Marlins47c549.97$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.491,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f14…a4ebbacked Miami Marlins48c520.83$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.832665.4%17 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+28.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd7bb…1b01backed Miami Marlins48c516.67$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.671758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8678…6199backed Miami Marlins48c515.1$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.854252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Miami Marlins58c509.91$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.1628042.1%118 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Athletics53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2651,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Athletics16c460$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5340043%172 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2354…20d0backed Athletics3c441.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154043.5%14 W · 390 L-19.4wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-59.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Athletics11c440.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.491,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Athletics7c440$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.364,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb6…9647backed Athletics53c420.52$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce00…7d1dbacked Miami Marlins48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6717952.5%94 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins64c371.4$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.75,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7693…470fbacked Athletics54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021354.5%116 W · 97 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d98…fe98backed Miami Marlins48c360.56$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.498155.6%45 W · 36 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67f4…f91bbacked Athletics6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012426.6%33 W · 91 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Miami Marlins48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.51,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x702e…ff44backed Miami Marlins47c301$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.5326444.3%117 W · 147 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed Athletics5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15372.7%1 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick10cpaid-82%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Miami Marlins47c290$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.71,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Athletics13c285.79$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.874,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa81…44a9backed Miami Marlins48c281.25$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.251060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97b0…b6e1backed Miami Marlins55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.73250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Athletics17c270$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.79,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Miami Marlins47c238.88$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.611,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ad8…5004backed Miami Marlins48c233.64$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.4918855.3%104 W · 84 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Miami Marlins47c212.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7651545.2%233 W · 282 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd52…aa25backed Miami Marlins59c211.86$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8628152%146 W · 135 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Miami Marlins48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3381257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f03…9372backed Miami Marlins48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.333857.9%22 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+25.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Athletics10c205.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5352053.8%280 W · 240 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9807…6569backed Athletics14c204.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.083658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+25.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Miami Marlins46c203$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.6251547%242 W · 273 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Miami Marlins48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1043,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd428…6368backed Miami Marlins48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10439056.9%222 W · 168 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0925…dda4backed Miami Marlins48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Athletics53c194.34$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1031,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Athletics30c192.8$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.842,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb92…b221backed Athletics52c191.03$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3337944.3%168 W · 211 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbd7…1c4fbacked Miami Marlins48c185.44$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.438058.8%47 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe530…a2cabacked Miami Marlins47c180$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.441549.2%204 W · 211 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Athletics11c178.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7640447.8%193 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Athletics51c172.24$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9385949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7e…c45cbacked Miami Marlins48c158.65$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.58053.8%43 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe426…f4ffbacked Miami Marlins48c154.69$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4411956.3%67 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb33…6f31backed Miami Marlins48c153.27$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.78158%47 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics52c152.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.192,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd437…ba37backed Miami Marlins47c150$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.51952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Athletics10c147.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.831,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.