TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Athletics (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Miami Marlinsof Athletics, Miami Marlins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,243
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,202

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,243 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd437…ba37backed Miami Marlins64c358.25$229 inWon+$128.971952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Athletics36c328$118 inLost-$118.082,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Athletics19c322$60 inLost-$59.711,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Athletics36c306.61$110 inLost-$110.382,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins64c300$192 inWon+$1088,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins63c191.69$121 inWon+$70.9311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics36c178.49$65 inLost-$64.8612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Miami Marlins78c160$124 inWon+$35.7888046.4%408 W · 472 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72f3…d396backed Miami Marlins64c121.88$78 inWon+$43.8850647%238 W · 268 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins63c112.56$71 inWon+$41.656,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Athletics37c105.57$39 inLost-$39.0679543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Athletics36c95$34 inLost-$34.21,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa89…ccd2backed Miami Marlins65c77$50 inWon+$2719154.5%104 W · 87 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Miami Marlins64c60.97$39 inWon+$21.9553950.6%273 W · 266 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdef6…d18fbacked Miami Marlins65c46.23$30 inWon+$16.2345348.6%220 W · 233 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Athletics35c36.23$13 inLost-$12.689,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins65c15.4$10 inWon+$5.391,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.