MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd22702c81ce3faea8b5aa5a56ae98387ca02183e676c5b93847962e379a4ff1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Miami Marlins, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 17,898$5,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,205.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 71c | 14,085$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,084.51 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Athletics | 60c | 1,942$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.57 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 1,890$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.6 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Athletics | 71c | 695.2$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.61 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Athletics | 71c | 550$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.5 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Athletics | 71c | 417.21$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Athletics | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…dc4ebacked Athletics | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Athletics | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 123.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Athletics | 71c | 112.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 53c | 105.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Athletics | 71c | 101.23$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Athletics | 71c | 98.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Athletics | 44c | 89.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Miami Marlins | 31c | 70.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Athletics | 71c | 68.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…60bebacked Athletics | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…6d55backed Athletics | 71c | 46.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Athletics | 71c | 46.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 42.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Athletics | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Athletics | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…1ce4backed Athletics | 70c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Athletics | 69c | 35.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Athletics | 71c | 31.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…822dbacked Athletics | 71c | 26.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Athletics | 71c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Athletics | 71c | 22.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Athletics | 71c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Athletics | 69c | 15.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99a…1f3ebacked Athletics | 71c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-8.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. AthleticsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-7.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.