MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa37dbb9ff11c60c53035fc563afd9a8b1a031fb1ca4ec20b63a392eaae9723c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 57c | 9,896$5,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,686.4 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 4,541$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270.5 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 1,428$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 51c | 908$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.92 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 51c | 456.04$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.23 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Over | 49c | 454.09$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.59 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 42c | 243.07$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.98 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 50c | 196$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Over | 50c | 166$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 58c | 161.7$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 50c | 151.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 54c | 128.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 47c | 110.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Over | 50c | 108$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Over | 50c | 72.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…60bebacked Under | 59c | 67.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 42c | 66.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 42c | 63.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 50c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 60.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Over | 51c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 54c | 50.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Over | 50c | 45.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 56c | 44.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 70c | 42.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 42c | 31.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb175…fd32backed Over | 50c | 30.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9cbdbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. AthleticsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-7.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-8.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.